You know that list of Hollywood stars who were nominated multiple times but never won a competitive Oscar: Marlene Dietrich, Peter Sellers, Ava Gardner, Ralph Fiennes, Dorothy Dandridge, Natalie Wood, Peter O’Toole, Cary Grant, Amy Adams, Richard Burton, and Bradley Cooper. The list goes on. Or those who won the Oscar long after they should have won the Oscar? See Elizabeth Taylor and Paul Newman.
Winning the Academy Award is about being in the right movie at the right time. Hitting the zeitgeist. And often being “overdue” can push someone into the winner’s circle. The legacy of a long career counts for a lot with Oscar voters, along with personal popularity and respect. (See Amy Madigan in “Weapons”). And you don’t have to be likable or even show up to win: Sean Penn has won three Oscars out of six nominations. The performance just has to be undeniable as it was with “One Battle After Another.”
This year we have quite a few prior nominees vying for the gold. (Once you get in the club, they often invite you back.) We are limiting this list of overdue actors to those who are actually in the running for a nomination this year as well as those who have earned more than one Oscar. (The list of one-hit wonders is long. Sandra Hüller will add to her “Anatomy of a Fall” nod this year, for sure.)
For fun, let’s rank the acting contenders in order of their likelihood to nab an Oscar statue on March 14, 2027.
Matt Damon
For the win: Best Actor, “The Odyssey” (Universal)
Movie Metascore: 88
Past acting nominations: “The Martian” (2016), “Invictus” (2010), “Good Will Hunting” (1998).
Bottom Line: This veteran actor carries the year’s most admired and prestigious blockbuster, Christopher Nolan’s adaptation of Homer’s epic poem about a mighty Greek warrior struggling to return home after the fall of Troy. At 55, Damon had to embody the muscled, grizzled, wily Odysseus. And he emphasized in his interviews how challenging physically and mentally the shoot was for him. Comp: Leonardo DiCaprio won his first Oscar at 41 for “The Revenant.”
John Malkovich
For the win: “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight)
Festival play: Venice
Prior acting nominations: “In the Line of Fire,” “Places in the Heart”
Bottom Line: Martin McDonagh’s two-hander gives Malkovich, 72, a plum role as a dying CIA spook who visits Easter Island in order to shuffle off this mortal coil at the hands of his spy partner (Sam Rockwell). Malkovich makes you laugh and cry, with ace support from Rockwell.
Ryan Gosling
For the win: “Project Hail Mary” (Amazon/MGM)
Movie Metascore: 77.
Prior acting nominations: “Barbie,” “La La Land,” “Half-Nelson”
Bottom Line: At 45, Gosling is at the height of his popularity after the smash crowdpleaser “Project Hail Mary.” He’s charming on the PR circuit, and if “The Odyssey” wasn’t eating up all the oxygen, he’d be the Best Actor frontrunner for his tone-perfect performance as a science teacher in outer space trying to save the world with the help of an alien named Rocky.
Tom Cruise
For the win: “Digger” (Warner Bros.)
No festival play
Prior acting nominations: “Magnolia,” “Jerry Maguire,” “Born on the 4th of July”
Bottom Line: Cruise, 64, is slathered in makeup to look his own age in “Birdman” Oscar-winner A.G. Iñárritu’s madcap end-of-the-world comedy with shades of “Dr. Strangelove.” Sometimes over-the-top works with the Academy. (See Sean Penn.) The movie is skipping festivals, which suggests that Warners is scared of critics. But that’s exactly what “Digger” needs to succeed. If Cruise wants to win badly enough, he might campaign a little. He is usually guarded with the press.
Edward Norton
For the win: “The Invite” (A24)
Movie Metascore: 82
Past acting nominations: “A Complete Unknown,” “Birdman,” “American History X,” “Primal Fear”
Bottom Line: Hollywood veteran Norton, 57, has been consistently nominated for his crafty performances, with no Oscar win thus far. He shines in Olivia Wilde’s hilarious four-hander as a free-thinker who with his partner (Penélope Cruz) tries to lure his uptight neighbors (Wilde and Seth Rogen) into group sex. Wilde credits her co-stars with collaborating on this high-wire act.
Samantha Morton
For the win: “The Odyssey”
Movie Metascore: 88
Prior acting nominations: “In America,” “Sweet and Lowdown”
Bottom Line: Like last year’s Oscar-winner Amy Madigan, British actress Morton is a familiar figure in the film community. While the 49-year-old delivers “The Odyssey”‘s best supporting performance as ruthless enchantress Circe, the actress is bracingly candid, admitting on a podcast that she has not worked for a year.
Timothée Chalamet
For the win: “Dune: Part Three” (Warner Bros./Legendary)
No festival play
Past acting nominations: “Marty Supreme,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Call Me by Your Name”
Bottom Line: Global star Chalamet, 30, hit the awards circuit hard last year for “Marty Supreme,” making a few controversial blunders along the way which may have cost him the Oscar. “Dune: Part Three” offers him a dramatic lead as the powerful Paul Atreides, who goes to the dark side in the finale of Denis Villeneuve’s trilogy. On the other hand, genre films don’t always yield acting nods.
Cynthia Erivo
For the win: “Prima Facie”
Festival play: TIFF sales title
Past acting nominations: “Wicked,” “Harriet”
Bottom Line: Never count out Erivo. The issue here is why this movie based on the Tony-winning play hasn’t already been picked up. Buyers may be waiting to see how it plays with Toronto audiences. And it’s tough to launch an awards campaign that late. It’s been done. But it’s a steep ramp.
Adam Driver
For the win: “Paper Tiger” (Neon)
Festival play: Cannes Competition, New York Film Festival opener
Movie Metascore: 77
Prior acting nominations: “Marriage Story,” “BlacKkKlansman”
Bottom Line: Driver won raves for his performance as a 1986 Long Island ex-cop who tangles with the Russian mafia in James Gray’s family thriller.
Paul Giamatti
For the win: “The Debut: (A24)
Prior acting nominations: “The Holdovers” and “Cinderella Man”
Festival play: Venice
Bottom Line: Giamatti got close to a win for Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers.” It was “Oppenheimer” star Cillian Murphy’s year. Giamatti is well regarded and chronically outstanding, which may finally lift him into the winners circle.
Scarlett Johansson
For the win: “Paper Tiger” (Neon)
Festival play: Cannes Competition and NYFF Opening Night
Movie Metascore: 77
Prior acting nominations: “Marriage Story” and “Jojo Rabbit”
Bottom Line: Scarjo goes period as a 1986 working-class Long Island wife and mother. She runs a gamut of emotions as her husband (Miles Teller) and her two boys are put through the wringer when they run afoul of the Russian mafia.
Mark Ruffalo
For the win: “Being Heumann” (Apple TV)
Festival play: TIFF opening night.
Past acting nominations: “Poor Things,” “Spotlight,” “Foxcatcher,” “The Kids Are All Right”
Bottom Line: This may not be Ruffalo’s year, as many in Hollywood, while respecting his acting chops and Emmy contender “Task,” are unhappy with his recent vocal pro-Palestine activism and attacks on the Ellisons’ contested Warnermount merger.
Glenn Close
For the win: “La Bola Negra” (Netflix)
Festival play: Cannes Competition
Metascore: 85.
Prior acting nominations: “Fatal Attraction,” “Hillbilly Elegy,” “The Wife,” “Albert Nobbs,” “Dangerous Liaisons,” “Fatal Attraction,” “The Natural,” “The Big Chill,” “The World According to Garp”
Bottom Line: With eight competitive Oscar nods behind her, Close is more than overdue and she even speaks Spanish in Cannes director prizewinner “La Bola Negra.” But it’s a small supporting role and Netflix is also campaigning for the more colorful Cruz.
Rooney Mara
For the win: “Bucking Fastard”
Festival play: Venice (sales title)
Prior acting nominations: “Carol,” “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Bottom Line: You never know what you’re going to get when Werner Herzog leaves nonfiction for narrative. Mara and her sister Kate play twins who speak in sync. Extra credit for originality?
Colman Domingo
For the win: “Michael” (Lionsgate)
Movie Metascore: 39
Prior acting nominations: “Sing Sing,” “Rustin”
Bottom Line: Domingo is a beloved figure, but even he is unlikely to elevate a blockbuster with a 39 Metascore. And he plays the cartoon villain of the piece, Joe Jackson.
Willem Dafoe
For the win: “Werwulf” (Focus), “Late Fame” (Magnolia)
Movie Metascore: 78.
Festival play: Venice 2025 for “Late Fame.”
Prior acting nominations: “At Eternity’s Gate,” “The Florida Project,” “Shadow of the Vampire,” “Platoon”
Bottom Line: If only the hugely respected Dafoe wasn’t up for a Universal horror remake from Robert Eggers and a micro-indie drama. His day will come. The critics groups, however, might go for his performance in “Late Fame” as a New York poet revisiting his legacy.
Andrew Garfield
For the win: “The Uprising” (Focus Features)
Prior acting nominations: “Tick Tick Boom,” “Hacksaw Ridge”
Bottom Line: Director Paul Greengrass is often in the awards conversation (“Captain Phillips,” “Green Zone,” “United 93”), but Focus is opening this violent actioner about a medieval peasant revolt on Sept. 11 without festival play as a strictly commercial release, possibly because the Best Actor category is impossibly stacked.
