Oscar season is certainly not yet among us, but halfway through the year, it is kosher to talk about what performances that have already been seen by the general public could become awards contenders down the line. After all, seven out of the last 12 acting performances to have won Oscars are for films that premiered prior to the fall festival season, which was long seen as the optimal launchpad for awards contenders.
We are also coming off of a few years where box office success very much turned voters’ heads toward films they were previously shown to have hangups about. For example, can prognosticators keep standing on the idea that the Academy hates horror if a horror film just became the most Oscar-nominated film of all time?
To make things fair to our wider readership, we are again focusing on films that one could have already seen at one’s local cineplex, so we will not be diving into the awards potential for all the films that premiered at Cannes in May (though no performer there checked enough boxes to warrant frontrunner status).
This list is also meant to be in alphabetical order, but there is a case to be made that it also reflects which nominations are least likely to most likely. Some considerations to be made are how much the performance stands out, whether or not there could be a winning campaign strategy for it, and whether or not it comes from a film released by a studio that has the bandwidth and know-how to front an Oscar campaign.
See our list below of the five performances from 2026 so far that could reasonably receive Oscar nominations.
Emily Blunt, Best Actress for “Disclosure Day”
The latest Steven Spielberg film would have had to do a much better job at the box office to be seen as a shoo-in for awards contention, but it’s fair to still highlight the lead performance of the English actress in the sci-fi adventure. It serves as a reminder that she can be as flexible as she is fun, pulling from experiences like the fast talk of her breakout role in “The Devil Wears Prada,” or the heart-pounding pace of monster movie “A Quiet Place,” for which she randomly won an Actor Award. Sure, one could say she already finally got her due in the Academy’s eyes through receiving her first Oscar nomination for her role in “Oppenheimer,” but wouldn’t it be more fitting to spotlight Blunt’s talents through recognition for her modern take on a truly inspired heroine, rather than for playing the wife in a Christopher Nolan film?
Penélope Cruz, Best Supporting Actress for “The Invite”
The Spanish actress is no stranger to the Academy Awards, having earned two Best Actress nominations for collaborations with national icon Pedro Almodóvar, and a Supporting Actress nod for the polarizing “Nine,” but her actual Oscar win was for the enigmatic Maria Elena in Woody Allen’s “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.” The reason to mention Cruz’s oeuvre in this instance, though the work of the entire cast of Olivia Wilde’s latest film, written by Rashida Jones and Will McCormack, is worth campaigning, is that her character Piña serves as an interesting comparison to that latter role in particular.
Is she still playing the chaos agent this go-round if Piña is the most clearheaded person in the room? Her sex therapist character becomes the perfect conduit for the knotty relationship issues the film is attempting to untie, and therefore is a performance that should still presumably be talked about for months to come. Another awards nomination is certainly on the table for Cruz right now. Doubly so if Cannes standout “La Bola Negra” also breaks through.
Colman Domingo, Best Supporting Actor for “Michael”
There is a much longer debate to be had about what potential Jafaar Jackson may have for a Best Actor nomination, nailing the musicality of his iconic uncle. There is still a queasiness around the man Michael Jackson would allegedly become shortly after when the film wraps, but the blockbuster biopic from Lionsgate has not really had to deal with any accusations of it pulling punches when it comes to its portrayal of the Jackson family patriarch Joe. Not only does the role see two-time Oscar nominee Domingo play against type, as his previously recognized film work in “Rustin” and “Sing Sing” is more soulful and heroic, it also required a transformation, making the affable actor unrecognizable as the unrepentant stage parent.
That is all a recipe for plenty of supporting performance winners, from Mo’Nique in “Precious,” to J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash,” to Allison Janney in “I, Tonya.” And none of those stars are able to carry an awards campaign the way Domingo effortlessly has as a model talk show guest and permanent fixture on Best Dressed lists throughout the year.
Ryan Gosling, Best Actor for “Project Hail Mary”
His history of Oscar nominations speak to the rollercoaster ride the Canadian actor has had as a leading man. In 2007, the former “Mickey Mouse Club” mouseketeer earned his first nod for Best Actor in the micro-budget indie “Half Nelson.” Though he would be in plenty of acclaimed, even Oscar-nominated films big and small afterwards, from “Blue Valentine” to “The Big Short,” his next Best Actor nomination would come a decade later for “La La Land,” a quintessential film geared toward Academy members. Finally, his most recent nomination came from a supporting role as Ken in “Barbie,” an absolute smash at the box office.
All this to say, voters’ experience watching Gosling is seeing what great range he has as an actor, who now has the ability to carry what became this year’s thinking man’s blockbuster. The only thing slowing his momentum is the Amazon MGM Studios project’s release date being much earlier than when voting for Oscars is top of mind, but all it would take to renew interest in his heartwarming star turn as an unlikely astronaut tasked with saving Earth is a re-release around Thanksgiving time, considering how the Phil Lord and Chris Miller film is one for the whole family to enjoy.
Inde Navarette, Best Actress for “Obsession”
It is an unassailable truth that members of the Academy have had a long-held horror bias, with only a handful of performances from the genre receiving nominations. But that only makes it more frustrating to hear people say now, “Well, if Oscar nominee Toni Collette in ‘Hereditary’ or Oscar winner Lupita Nyong’o in ‘Us’ did not receive any major awards attention, why should we think the breakout star has any chance?”
Well, those two examples are before movie theaters were in crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the horror movies were looked at as a foundational part of what has kept theater-going alive. The Academy has since proven to be down to consider a box office hit, regardless of genre, especially if it’s an original script. So the fact that “Obsession” has just about surpassed “Sinners” as the highest-grossing original film of the decade so far means something. Academy members are only human, and if the whole country is suggesting they watch a specific performance, they are bound to become curious.
Navarette is not working with the same cachet as “Weapons” actress Amy Madigan or “Sinners” actor Michael B. Jordan, who had both long been on voters’ radars before they won Oscars for their work in two horror films, but her portrayal of a young woman trapped in her own body, her true self memorably creeping in ever so slightly throughout writer/director Curry Barker’s crowd-pleasing debut, has had the same meme-able stickiness.
Not to mention the film was released by Focus Features, a studio that just took up three out of five of the Best Actress slots at the most recent Oscars, with the winner being Jessie Buckley for “Hamnet.” With the Oscars not being until March 2027, there is absolutely enough of a runway for the seasoned studio to run a successful campaign that puts the 25-year-old actress in serious contention for an Academy Award nomination.
